Bitfinex Alpha | Buyers Waiting in the Wings

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Bitcoin recovered strongly over the past week, reclaiming the $85,000 level. The bounce was driven by macro relief after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs, easing trade tensions and reigniting risk appetite. Importantly, the rebound was powered by spot market demand rather than leveraged derivatives positioning, indicating genuine conviction among buyers. Bitcoin closed the week 6.67 percent higher, extending a 15 percent move from the lows and suggesting that the correction—now 83 days long and 31 percent deep—remains consistent with typical mid-cycle retracements seen in past bull markets.

Spot cumulative volume delta across major exchanges shows sustained aggressive buying, yet the price remains trapped within a $75,000 to $85,000 range. This divergence signals potential for an upside breakout if supply thins further. However, a short-term pullback early this week is expected, driven by profit-taking. The response to this dip—whether buyers continue absorbing supply—will determine if Bitcoin pushes toward $90,000. On-chain data adds confluence, with long-term holder accumulation turning positive for the first time since December. While early signals are constructive, confirmation of trend strength still depends on how demand holds up during any short-term weakness.

In March, headline inflation offered what seemed like a brief reprieve, as the Consumer Price Index dipped slightly due to falling energy and transportation costs. However, beneath this temporary calm lies a looming storm: new trade tariffs, especially those recently enacted and threatened by the US administration, are poised to push prices higher in the coming months. Core inflation, particularly in services and housing, remains stubbornly elevated, reinforcing concerns that inflationary pressures are far from over. This precarious inflation outlook coincides with mounting instability in financial markets. A dramatic pivot in trade policy—first escalating tariffs, then hastily walking them back—has undermined global confidence in the US economic direction, triggering capital flight from US assets.

The dollar has weakened sharply, Treasury yields have surged, and volatility has spiked, revealing a market environment that is increasingly on edge. Even a short-lived rally in the S&P 500 failed to calm fears, as investors continue to grapple with the consequences of erratic policy moves. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is plunging. The University of Michigan’s latest survey shows a steep drop in confidence and a shocking surge in inflation expectations to levels not seen since the early 1980s. Households now anticipate persistent inflation and rising unemployment, pulling back spending and bracing for economic hardship. This erosion in both financial and consumer confidence suggests that the US economy stands at a critical crossroads. With inflation fears clashing against slowing growth, the Federal Reserve faces a no-win scenario—likely postponing any rate cuts while walking a tightrope between controlling inflation and avoiding a full-blown recession. The convergence of tariff-driven inflation, policy-induced market volatility, and collapsing consumer confidence paints a stark warning: unless clarity and stability return soon, the US economy may be heading into its most challenging period since the pandemic.

In crypto news last week, Galaxy Digital secured SEC approval to redomicile in Delaware and list on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY—a strategic move that signals increasing acceptance of  digital asset investments with traditional US capital markets. While this development underscores the legitimacy and scaling of crypto infrastructure, elsewhere, the risks of unregulated hype came into stark focus. In Argentina, a congressional inquiry has been launched into the failed Libra token, a Solana-based memecoin that President Javier Milei publicly endorsed before its value crashed by over 90 percent, wiping out billions in speculative market cap. What began as a political show of support for innovation quickly turned into a scandal, with lawmakers demanding accountability and some even calling for Milei’s impeachment. Meanwhile, in the US, North Carolina is charting a more cautious but optimistic course by introducing the Digital Asset Freedom Act, a bill that proposes allowing select cryptocurrencies for tax payments and transactions—provided they meet strict standards for liquidity, decentralisation, and long-term market integrity. With such divergent developments unfolding simultaneously—from institutional adoption to political fallout—the crypto landscape continues to evolve as both a vehicle of transformation and a mirror of the challenges that come with disruption.

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