Barclays Raises Tesla Price Target to $350 Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Key highlights

• Barclays increased its Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target from $275 to $350, maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating.
• The firm cites an “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative” driven by Elon Musk’s compensation proposal and improving vehicle margins.
• Despite bullish sentiment around Tesla’s AI prospects, Barclays remains cautious about near-term fundamentals.

Barclays has revised its price target for Tesla stock, boosting it from $275 to $350 while keeping an “Equal Weight” rating. The change comes ahead of Tesla’s Q3 earnings report, with analysts pointing to a bifurcated narrative surrounding the electric vehicle (EV) giant.

NEWS: Barclays analyst Dan Levy has raised his $TSLA price target to $350 (from $275).

“Tesla enters Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories,” namely an accelerating autonomous and AI narrative bolstered by Elon Musk’s proposed comp package.” The firm is expecting a Q3 EPS…

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 16, 2025

Dan Levy, lead analyst at Barclays, noted two contrasting themes shaping investor expectations: a surging AI and autonomous technology narrative led by CEO Elon Musk, and a weaker fundamental backdrop for Tesla’s core automotive business. “We are leaning neutral to slightly negative heading into the Q3 earnings call,” Levy stated, emphasizing that while market enthusiasm is high, it is not entirely supported by underlying business performance.

AI momentum versus fundamentals

The bullish case for Tesla centers around its push into artificial intelligence and robotics. Tesla has been promoting its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and humanoid robot project Optimus as key growth drivers. Elon Musk has frequently highlighted these initiatives, suggesting they could redefine Tesla’s long-term value proposition. Notably, Nvidia’s backing has added credibility to Tesla’s AI ambitions.

However, Barclays warned that these AI-driven prospects are still speculative. Despite optimism around the long-term potential of products like Robotaxi and Optimus, they have yet to generate meaningful revenue. Other analysts, including those at BNP Paribas Exane, have also expressed skepticism, noting that these speculative ventures account for a significant portion of Tesla’s lofty valuation despite “zero sales today.”

Q3 expectations and institutional positioning

Barclays anticipates a Q3 earnings-per-share (EPS) beat, driven by stronger-than-expected gross margins and higher vehicle delivery volumes. The firm also noted that Tesla is a beneficiary of recent U.S. tariff changes, as all vehicles sold domestically are manufactured within the U.S.

Despite near-term headwinds, institutional sentiment appears broadly supportive. Over the past quarter, institutional ownership of TSLA stock has increased by 2.9%, with the average portfolio weight dedicated to Tesla rising by 3.32%. The current put/call ratio stands at 0.86, suggesting a bullish market outlook.

Still, the broader consensus among analysts remains cautious. As of September 30, the average one-year price target for Tesla sits at $332.54, roughly 24% below its recent share price of $438. Price forecasts range widely, from as low as $19.24 to as high as $630, reflecting significant uncertainty about the company’s future trajectory.

Algorithmic model forecasts a TSLA rally to $600

The algorithmic TSLA stock forecast on CoinCodex is firmly on the bullish side for Tesla, as it forecasts the stock to rally all the way up to the $600 mark in November. This would represent a 37.6% increase compared to the stock’s current price.

Although the projected rally to $600 is expected to be followed by a correction, the Tesla stock prediction on CoinCodex anticipates TSLA to end the year at roughly $526, which would still be a substantial 20.6% increase from the current price.